A few key points I made:
Whether deliberate or not, it doesn’t matter. The drone attack on Romanian territory is a direct consequence of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine. As Russia loses ground on the battlefield — British intelligence now estimates 500,000 Russian casualties — and its economy continues to contract, Putin is looking for ways to distract attention from his failures and test Western resolve.
The US-Europe divide is a gift to Putin. Since 1945, Moscow’s strategic goal has been to get the United States out of Europe. The current level of division between Washington and its European allies — fueled by presidential rhetoric questioning NATO’s value and reduced U.S. military commitments — plays directly into Putin’s hands. He’s testing how NATO responds to these provocations, and crucially, whether Washington reacts at all. So far, the answer has been silence.
Putin appears to have given up on Trump. As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt also noted, Putin no longer seems to believe Trump can deliver what Russia wants — namely, Ukraine ceding the Donbas territory it currently holds. Having failed to get that through U.S.-mediated negotiations, Putin is now signaling he may prefer European interlocutors. That’s a worrying sign: when Europe negotiated alone before, Putin got a lot of what he wanted then.
The bottom line: Russia is under pressure, but a cornered Putin is a dangerous one. Europe needs to stay united, and Washington needs to decide which side it’s on.
