I joined Bloomberg’s Balance of Power today, ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Ankara. Full segment is above. Three things worth pulling out — plus one that has nothing to do with NATO at all.
1. The bar for Ankara could not be lower.
I said it on air: the best outcome now is that the summit happens and nothing blows up. No reset, no fireworks, no fresh commitment. NATO living to fight another day is basically the ambition at this point. That’s not a knock on the alliance. That’s where Trump’s repeated outburst against NATO over the past months (and years) have left it.
2. “They weren’t there for us”? Check the record.
Trump again claimed on Truth Social that the relationship with NATO is “one-sided” — that Europe “wasn’t there for us.” Look at the actual record. NATO has invoked Article 5 exactly once in 77 years — after September 11, to defend the United States. More than a thousand European soldiers died in Afghanistan doing it. And while some allies limited access to the US military, the Iran war could not have happened without access to European bases and airspace. Once again, NATO proved it is essential for American security — in our mutual interest. There is nothing one-sided about this alliance.
3. Ukraine has the momentum. Peace still needs Putin.
Russia’s ground offensives have stalled and are starting to be reversed. Roughly 35,000 Russian soldiers dead or wounded every month — most now from drones, not direct fire — with replacements falling short of losses. Ukraine is hitting Russian energy infrastructure and pushing into Crimea. The momentum is shifting. And the moment for a deal is ripening. But only if Putin accepts that what’s on the table now is the ceiling, not the floor. His refusal to accept that has been the problem all along.
And then there’s the World Cup.
Not what I expected to be asked about on a NATO segment, but here we are: FIFA’s extraordinary decision to suspend a suspension — lifting Folarin Balogun’s automatic red-card ban just in time for the U.S.–Belgium match, after a phone call from the President. UEFA called it crossing a red line. I called it shameful. Donald Trump is not a man who plays by the rules, on the pitch or off it. Ankara, Kyiv, Seattle — that’s the world we now live in.
