"Peace" in Ukraine without Ukraine

You cannot impose a peace on Ukraine. But Trump thinks he can.

Presidents Trump and Putin meeting Alaska in August. Photo courtesy of The White House.

One day after President Trump announced “massive sanctions” on Russia for its failure to end the war in Ukraine, his peace envoy Steve Witkoff set down with top Kremlin insider Kirill Dimitriev to hash out a 28-point “peace plan.” We don’t yet know the details of the plan, but there are worrying indications that this is a disaster in the making.

Russia is “being heard”

What are these indications. First of all, Dimitriev seems quite pleased with the discussions. “We feel the Russian position is really being heard,” he told Axios, which broke the story about the negotiations. The problem is that the Russian position is unacceptable to Ukraine and to Europeans, both of whom will have to live with the consequences. It should be unacceptable to the Trump Administration as well, but the last ten months underscore that Trump’s quest for the Noble Peace Prize is far more important to him than the details of any agreements that are negotiated under his tutelage.

The second reason to be concerned about the plan is that it apparently not only seeks to solve the Ukraine crisis but also proposes a framework that, Dimitriev said, would bring “lasting security to Europe, not just Ukraine.” Forgive me if I am skeptical. Negotiating a lasting framework for European security with Russia, and only Russia, doesn’t give me any confidence. Knowing that Steve Witkoff is the one negotiating that framework is even more worrisome, since Trump’s peace envoy has repeatedly demonstrated that he doesn’t understand even the basics of European security.

Witkoff’s Fallacy

Remember when, last August, Witkoff told the world that Russia had accepted “Article 5-like” security guarantees from the United States for Ukraine? He got that wrong. Russia only agreed to the same “security” guarantees it had offered Ukraine back in 2022—where the guarantee would be subject to a Russian veto. As Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov explained days later, unilateral guarantees for Ukraine are “an absolutely hopeless undertaking.”

It was hardly the first time Witkoff got things wrong. Earlier in the year, he told Tucker Carlson that the four eastern Ukrainian regions Russia had illegally incorporated into Russia were “Russian speaking,” as if this gives any country the right to seize them. “There have been referendums,” Witkoff went on, “where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.” But these “referendums” were conducted under occupation, a detail Witkoff apparently didn’t know or thought important.

Here’s the problem. Witkoff has spent more time with the Russians than he has with Ukrainians and Europeans. He’s taken Russia’s word as the final word, often using Kremlin talking points as his own. Much like his boss, Witkoff thinks Putin is sincere and wants peace. Because the Russian leader told him so. Never mind that as a trained KGB agent, Putin knows a thing or two about how to make his interlocutors believe something that isn’t true.

Peace Cannot be Imposed

The third and most important reason to be skeptical is that the “peace plan” apparently was drawn up without any Ukrainian or European involvement. That’s a fool’s errand. Trump may think that Russia and America can tell Ukraine and Europe what to do, but when it comes to their security, none of these countries will take Trump (or Witkoff’s) word for it—let alone the word of Vladimir Putin. You cannot impose peace, especially on a country that has been fighting for close to 12 years to maintain its independence and territorial integrity. Unless a final agreement reflects the interests of both parties—not just those of the strongest—there will be no peace in Ukraine.

And, yet, the White House seems to think it can force Ukraine’s hand. They think Ukraine is losing on the battlefield. They see the corruption scandal engulfing the Zelensky government as useful to convince Kyiv to raise the white flag. “What we are going to present is reasonable,” one official told Politico. Maybe that’s how the White House sees it. But what is reasonable is ultimately put to Ukraine to decide.

Then there is Europe. If this plan is supposed to provide for “lasting security in Europe,” as Dimitriev promises, then you might think that Europe should be involved in drawing it up. But that’s not the way this White House does business. “We don’t really care about the Europeans,” the same official tells Politico. Unfortunately for them, the Europeans care about their own security. The same goes for Ukraine. They will want a say — the final say — on their security, whatever Donald Trump, Steve Witkoff, or any other US official thinks.

No Peace without Ukraine

Yesterday, Trump lamented that he hadn’t yet succeeded in ending the war. “I’ve actually stopped eight wars. I have another one to go with Putin,” he added. “I’m a little surprised at Putin. It is taken longer than I thought.”

As long as Trump thinks that he can end this war with Putin and without Zelensky and Ukraine, he will have to wait a whole lot longer.