The disputes over the Iran War are unprecedented in NATO's 77-year history. It threatens not just the cohesion, but the very foundation of the Alliance itself.
NATO can only be saved if the US is not a member anymore. Trump did not hesitate one minute to start a war that is immoral, illegal, doomed to fail and has no qualms about throwing Europe and Asia under the bus. He did not consult with anybody except the genocidal regime in Tel Aviv. If it were possible to save his orange behind from this mess and we did help him, he would do something similar to us again in a split second. Frankly the Western alliance as such is dead, not just NATO. The smart thing to do is to ignore the Israelis and the Americans and negotiate with Iran. The sanctions have failed to dislodge the regime anyway, so they should go. The hard ask to Iran should be a total halt to its relationship with Russia in exchange for economic normalisation. The question that the US-Israel axis of genocide would then face is whether they dare to bomb tankers and other ships whose owners are citizens of non-belligerent nations.
Imagine where that leaves Canada… We don’t even have the choice of seeking autonomy. Geography dictates that we must deal with the USA, no matter if the guy in charge is a compounded moron.
Naturally, American commitment to NATO is NOT without self-interest. NATO has many major advantages for the U.S., also after the end of the war in Afghanistan:
American NATO membership allows for the domination of a huge defense market, also because NATO technological standards are usually driven by the U.S. industry.
NATO is a tool for containing the influence of Russia, not only in Europe, but also in the Arctic, and in the Pacific, both of which are of increasing importance to the U.S.
NATO provides a pool of interoperable partners to the U.S. for military operations around the globe to confront shared threats (like Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Counter-Piracy Operations off the coast of Somalia) - even if this is in the Iran War not the case
American access to NATO territory is a huge geostrategic advantage, increasing strategic reach and providing access to forward basing for global operations, including for Ballistic Missile Defense and Anti-Submarine Warfare.
Altogether, it does not make sense for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO. Moreover, according to Section 1250A of the NDAA 2024 (National Defense Authorization Act [https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-118publ31/pdf/PLAW-118publ31.pdf]), any President is banned from withdrawing from NATO without a two-thirds Senate vote or an Act of Congress. This means, President Trump cannot make the decision to withdraw from NATO on his own..
However, let me emphasize that it is not very wise for the Europeans to keep (almost) entirely out of supporting the US (and the Arabs) in the Iran War. Security policy is not about emotions, but about strategic interests.
You are invited to take a look at my detailed analysis: “Trump translated: I will not protect you if you are not paying!”
NATO can only be saved if the US is not a member anymore. Trump did not hesitate one minute to start a war that is immoral, illegal, doomed to fail and has no qualms about throwing Europe and Asia under the bus. He did not consult with anybody except the genocidal regime in Tel Aviv. If it were possible to save his orange behind from this mess and we did help him, he would do something similar to us again in a split second. Frankly the Western alliance as such is dead, not just NATO. The smart thing to do is to ignore the Israelis and the Americans and negotiate with Iran. The sanctions have failed to dislodge the regime anyway, so they should go. The hard ask to Iran should be a total halt to its relationship with Russia in exchange for economic normalisation. The question that the US-Israel axis of genocide would then face is whether they dare to bomb tankers and other ships whose owners are citizens of non-belligerent nations.
Imagine where that leaves Canada… We don’t even have the choice of seeking autonomy. Geography dictates that we must deal with the USA, no matter if the guy in charge is a compounded moron.
Can't be trusted period.
I pray not
Naturally, American commitment to NATO is NOT without self-interest. NATO has many major advantages for the U.S., also after the end of the war in Afghanistan:
American NATO membership allows for the domination of a huge defense market, also because NATO technological standards are usually driven by the U.S. industry.
NATO is a tool for containing the influence of Russia, not only in Europe, but also in the Arctic, and in the Pacific, both of which are of increasing importance to the U.S.
NATO provides a pool of interoperable partners to the U.S. for military operations around the globe to confront shared threats (like Afghanistan, Iraq, and the Counter-Piracy Operations off the coast of Somalia) - even if this is in the Iran War not the case
American access to NATO territory is a huge geostrategic advantage, increasing strategic reach and providing access to forward basing for global operations, including for Ballistic Missile Defense and Anti-Submarine Warfare.
Altogether, it does not make sense for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO. Moreover, according to Section 1250A of the NDAA 2024 (National Defense Authorization Act [https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-118publ31/pdf/PLAW-118publ31.pdf]), any President is banned from withdrawing from NATO without a two-thirds Senate vote or an Act of Congress. This means, President Trump cannot make the decision to withdraw from NATO on his own..
However, let me emphasize that it is not very wise for the Europeans to keep (almost) entirely out of supporting the US (and the Arabs) in the Iran War. Security policy is not about emotions, but about strategic interests.
You are invited to take a look at my detailed analysis: “Trump translated: I will not protect you if you are not paying!”
https://wolfgangp1964.substack.com/p/trump-translated-i-will-not-protect?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web