This month’s Ask Ivo ran the gamut — from the ICC’s toothlessness to why Iran has figured out Trump the same way North Korea, China, and Russia already have, to the AI risk conversation that I think we’re not having seriously enough.
On accountability. Susan J asked what can be done to give the ICC real teeth. My answer isn’t satisfying: in an anarchic international system, without the US, China, Russia, and Iran as members, there is no larger enforcement power. The adults in the room are us — citizens, not courts. This is the argument behind the Atlas of Impunity, the project I’ve worked on with David Miliband and the Eurasia Group for four years now.
On Ukraine. August S. asked why the pivot to Asia has come wrapped in Trump’s outright hostility toward Kyiv. My answer: it hasn’t — the Asia pivot is 40 years old and bipartisan. The hostility is personal and specific to Trump: the 2019 impeachment call, an unexplained fascination with Putin, and — most consequentially — a genuine failure to understand that Ukraine’s security, or Europe’s, is existential for America’s. That’s the break from 80 years of American strategy since Pearl Harbor.
On Iran. The pattern by now is unmistakable. Threaten, back down, repeat — the New York Post is calling this “lucky 13.” Iran has learned what North Korea, China, and Russia already knew: hold your ground and Trump folds. I don’t think the nuclear file changes, and I don’t think Hormuz stays free of Iranian control, no matter what Marco Rubio says today.
On AI. This is what actually keeps me up at night. Elon Musk himself puts a 10–20% probability on catastrophic outcomes. Jacob Tsimerman — this year’s Fields Medal winner — just walked away from pure mathematics to join OpenAI’s safety team because he takes “omnicide” scenarios seriously enough to want to work the problem from inside. Dario Amodei compares recursive self-improvement to the nuclear age. And the White House’s response, reported today, is a voluntary framework that doesn’t even touch open-source models. We regulate cars, drugs, household products more seriously than this. Thanks to Cinne Worthington for her question.
Join me the first Wednesday of every month, noon ET and 18h CET, for Ask Ivo.
