World Review: War in Iran? Peace in Syria? MAGA goes European.

A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review

Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.

Yesterday, February 20, we discussed the looming risk of war with Iran, the rapid consolidation of power in Syria as the United States pulls out its troops, and the Trump administration’s increasingly explicit effort to champion far-right politics in Europe. Joining me this week were Liz Sly, Correspondent-at-large of The Washington Post, Bobby Ghosh, journalist and editor for Time, Bloomberg, and CNN, and Matt Kaminski, Editorial Chair of the Middle East Broadcasting Networks and Co-founder of Politico Europe.

“World Review is always fascinating. I love the fact that you can get journalists from around the world to participate since zoom is the medium.”

— A Subscriber to America Abroad

While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:

• Iran feels like a classic game of chicken, except neither side has spelled out what the off-ramp looks like. The administration has assembled the largest naval and air posture in the region since the invasion of Iraq, and as Bobby put it, a gun placed on the mantle in the first act tends to get fired by the third. The temptation for Trump is obvious: he prefers coercion without American boots on the ground, he believes he has already gotten away with limited strikes before, and after a rough political week at home, he has reason to want a distraction or a win. But support for his plans in the region is slim. Liz explained that Gulf states have been quietly drawing red lines, refusing to be used as launch pads and trying to keep themselves out of the blast radius of possible Iranian retaliation. Matt argued that there is more than improvisation here, that parts of the administration see this as one piece of a larger project to remake the Middle East and isolate Tehran, potentially through a strike followed by tighter economic pressure. The problem is that the desired end state is still unclear. Even if the supreme leader were removed, the Revolutionary Guard holds the power, and Liz described the idea that they would calmly bargain their way into a profitable post-revolutionary future as a fantasy. In other words, the United States may be betting that pressure produces pragmatists, while Iran is betting it can wait out until the President’s attention shifts elsewhere.

• In Syria, the new government has managed to consolidate its power significantly. Liz described how Damascus has, for the first time in more than a decade, reasserted control over nearly all Syrian territory, helped by an agreement that integrates the Kurdish-led forces into the Syrian army while allowing local security in a small number of Kurdish majority towns. As US troops withdraw, the biggest near-term risks are familiar: what happens with the detention camps, what happens to escaped militants, and whether ISIS finds the opening it has long been waiting for. While ISIS has failed to consolidate power so far, Matt cautioned that Syria still faces scepticism from neighbouring states in the region, a rising Turkey eager to expand its influence, and an Israel deeply skeptical of the new order. Bobby argued there is more hope now than at any time in years, even if the Kurdish question will not disappear simply because a deal has been signed. If there is a lesson here, it is that the best case is no longer unimaginable, but it is fragile, and the next two months of implementation will tell us whether Syria is becoming a state again or merely entering a new phase of managed instability.

• The Trump administration appears to be increasingly bolstering its support for far-right movements in Europe. Matt captured the mood in Munich, where Marco Rubio received a standing ovation largely because he did not punch Europe in the nose, and because he articulated, in more civilized language, the argument that the Transatlantic alliance still matters for economics, security, and competition with China. But the performance continued after Munich, with Rubio traveling to Slovakia and Hungary and calling Viktor Orbán’s staying in power a vital American interest. Matt called it cognitive dissonance: you cannot claim Europe is essential and then openly meddle in its domestic politics. What the administration may be underestimating is that US support may not actually work in favour of the European far-right. In the UK context, as Liz pointed out, Nigel Farage may be personally close to Trump, but in Europe, association with Trump is often a liability. But Bobby warned that, even though the far-right movement is more aligned with Moscow than Washington, the administration’s actions may still affect tight elections.

Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.