World Review: US Strikes Venezuela. Greenland in Crosshairs. Demonstrations in Iran.

A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review

Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.

On Friday, January 9, we discussed the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump’s plans for Greenland, and protests erupting in Iran. Joining me this week were Felicia Schwartz, Diplomatic Correspondent of Politico, Bobby Ghosh, journalist and editor who writes for Time, Bloomberg, and CNN, and Yaroslav Trofimov, Chief Foreign-Affairs Correspondent of The Wall Street Journal.

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While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:

• Venezuela may be the most vivid example yet of how this administration pairs shock tactics with a poorly improvised endgame. Felicia called the Maduro operation a “surprising non-surprise,” as the administration had put pressure on the regime for months. Yet the scale of the operation was surprising in its sheer audacity: an overnight raid, an early-morning post from Trump announcing Maduro was en route to New York to face trial, and a press conference declaring the U.S. would now “run” the country. What that looks like remains unclear. Looking at the past, we would expect a call for elections and a plan to handover to the opposition. Instead, as Yaroslav points out, the U.S. appears to want to rule the country by remote control by putting pressure on Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, a strategy reminiscent of the age of empires. This may be particularly challenging given the country’s size, complex geography, and well-armed military and paramilitary groups, as Bobby points out. He expects much greater resistance once Rodríguez has consolidated her power and concluded that the Trump administration is hesitant to put boots on the ground. For now, the White House is trying to turn the raid into a commercial opening for the oil industry. But this may prove more challenging than expected, given oil companies think in decades, not news cycles. As long as the question of what “running” Venezuela actually means remains unanswered, we may not see much progress on the President’s oil agenda either.

• Following his claim of success in Venezuela, the President turned his attention back to Greenland, raising anxiety in European capitals over the future of the NATO alliance. Yaroslav described the threat to Greenland as a form of naked imperialism we haven’t seen in generations, motivated by resources, security, and power projection. But the administration’s motivations do not hold up to reason. Greenland’s resources are largely inaccessible, and as Bobby points out, America has reduced, not expanded, its military presence in Greenland over time because modern defense no longer requires a large number of bases in the Arctic. Despite their questionable arguments, Felicia points out that Washington isn’t treating this as a joke and that European leaders should take these threats seriously. Trump sees this through a real estate lens and has learned he can bully his allies into giving him what he wants. But even in the absence of any actions from the administration, these threats have very real consequences, emboldening Russia and casting doubt on the U.S. commitment to the NATO alliance.

• The President has also threatened to intervene in Iran, where a new wave of protests has sparked a debate over the possibility of regime change. Bobby pointed out that the regime is the weakest it has been in decades, battered strategically after severe blows to its regional proxies, economically strangled by mismanagement and sanctions, and now facing a currency in free fall. But what may make the biggest difference is who is protesting. When bazaaris, the shopkeepers and traders, close their shops and join the protests, it signals a significant change. The last time this constituency moved decisively against the regime, it was the final straw that brought down the Shah. As Yaroslav points out, the regime may be facing a perfect storm, humiliated by previous attacks and under pressure from the Trump administration. Felicia cautioned that U.S. officials inside the administration were unsure what Trump meant by being “locked and loaded.” She suggested the administration may be pulled less by a plan than by pressure from a Republican foreign-policy establishment that remembers the criticism of Obama’s restraint in 2009, and now wants visible support for protesters. But protests only succeed when security forces refuse to shoot, and the Iranian government has spent decades proving it is willing to shoot its own people. This uprising may be different. But even if it is, as Bobby warned, it won’t necessarily end in a neat replay of 1979, with a single figure returning from abroad to “complete” a revolution.

Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.