World Review: The Iran War, the U.S-China Relationship, and Cuba
A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review
Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
World Review can now be heard on Sundays, at 7:00 a.m. Central Time, on Chicago’s NPR station, WBEZ, or on the WBEZ app. We’ll still tape the show on Fridays, and post the video on YouTube and the audio version on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Now, on to this week’s show. We discussed the war in Iran, its effects on the U.S.-China relationship, and Trump’s statements on wanting to “take” Cuba. Joining me this week were Karen DeYoung, Associate Editor and Senior National Security Correspondent at The Washington Post, Robbie Gramer, National Security Correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, and Yaroslav Trofimov, the Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent for The Wall Street Journal.
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
For the first time in a long time, the United States is looking at a war that’s going to be going on for a good while. Perhaps the best analogy for the war in Iran is not the 2003 Iraq War, but the First Gulf War. There, the United States achieved its objectives, but saw itself drawn deeply into the Middle East for decades. The only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is with either a major ground invasion or a deal. Robbie argued that Iran could keep this war going for a very long time at a “low simmer.” In a deal scenario, Iran would likely seek to require payment from anyone that transits the strait, using extortion to project power. Like it or not, the United States will have to deal with this new state of affairs in the Middle East for years to come—hardly consistent with the pivot to Asia that successive administrations have sought to accomplish.
A major winner of the conflict in the Middle East may be China. While the Strait of Hormuz is closed to oil shipments to many countries, China is still getting oil, as Iran has allowed some China-bound tankers to transit. The U.S. military is also, once again, bogged down in the Middle East, expending time and precious munitions in this conflict. While China is certainly affected by the global economic shocks, it may not be as bad off as one might think. Yaroslav points out that the more munitions that the U.S. uses in the Middle East, the less there is available for a future contingency in the Indo-Pacific. He also argues that China is learning lessons from Iran. The closer China pulls Iran, the more it can learn about how to counter U.S. technology and munitions.
While we already knew that this is not a normal presidential administration, the focus on Cuba lays bare how much of Trump’s foreign policy is driven by personality, not process. Cuba is personally important to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and is thus a priority, even amidst the war in Iran. Karen points out that regime change in Cuba is the logical next step for the “Donroe Doctrine,” the idea guiding Trump’s quest for supremacy in the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela was a precursor to Cuba, now, the Trump Administration can either wait and squeeze Cuba economically or try a Venezuela-style regime decapitation. Economic strangulation is the most likely path. Robbie also points out how a normal administration, relying on an inter-agency process might be able to handle a U.S.-China summit at the same time as operations in Iran, but Trump relies only on a set of close, personal advisors. This makes his administration very decisive, but makes it hard to “walk and chew gum” at the same time.
Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.