World Review: Iran War Goals Uncertain; War Consequences Spread; Pentagon vs Claude
A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review
Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
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Now, on to the show. Today, March 6th, we discussed the ongoing War in Iran, the economic and political shockwave it has caused around the world, and the Pentagon’s ongoing war with. Joining me this week were Nahal Toosi, the Senior Foreign Correspondent at Politico, Anton La Guardia, the Diplomatic Editor at The Economist, and Prashant Rao, the Senior Editor at Semafor.
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
As the Iran War enters it second week, the political ends of the conflict remain confused. President Trump has been unclear on what his aims are, while Republicans in Congress seem focused on not calling this a war to avoid having to take a vote. Nahal points out that as the conflict continues, Democrats in Congress will have to coordinate on a response as decisions on funding arise. Prashant points out that the operation itself makes the 2003 Iraq War look well-planned, with a complete lack of aligning current ends with the means to accomplish them. Anton frames the mixed aims of the operation as different people within the administration fighting different wars. Secretary of Defense Hegseth are focused on highlighting lethality, while others arms of governments respond within their own narrow purviews. He also sees some of the unclear aims as deliberate, as Trump likes the flexibility to claim victory and avoid responsibility no matter the outcome. Prashant warns that “federalizing power” in another state, creating a weak center and strengthening other actors, can be dangerous and unpredictable.
While the Iran War continues, economic and political shockwaves reverberate across the region and the world. Prashant points out that despite the remarkably high interception rate of incoming Iranian attacks, there has been a high cost across the Gulf States. The ways in which cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi have fashioned themselves as global cities has been derailed. Globally, the Straight of Hormuz through which 20% of the world’s oil travels, is closed. Fiscal impacts are already being felt in South Korea and other Asian economies. States that rely on importing finished petroleum products, such as Nigeria, face a looming economic catastrophe. Russian efforts in the Ukraine War are already being buoyed by increased energy sales. War is happening in a concentrated space but reverberating economically, politically, and psychologically across the world.
Anton argues that one way to see this conflict is as the “Third Gulf War.” Past Gulf Wars ended up as defining moments in American world leadership; The First Gulf War in 1991 defined the U.S. as a hegemon. The Second, in 2003, was the beginning of American decline and involvement in the “forever wars.” This war will likely be epoch defining as well. It may be the beginning of driving a wedge into the “axis of autocracy” or of America getting so bogged down that China and others can rise. For now it, is too soon to tell.
The Pentagon took aim at Anthropic this week, the only AI firm that had a contract with the Pentagon to work with classified systems. The firm raised issues with some of the ways its tools could be used by the government. Secretary Hegseth and President Trump hit back at the firm, declaring it a supply chain risk. Anton reports that as AI is seeping into all forms of life, it is also seeping into war. U.S. military personnel have indicated that AI has been key to strike planning in the war. He asked whether it may have been used in the strike on a girls school in Iran that killed a reported 175 people. Prashant asserts that standing up to the DoD was a wise move by Anthropic, that they recognize that although the Pentagon budget is large, it is not the whole universe for these companies and mass consumption is much bigger. Nahal argues that we have to ask both “is it ok for the government to be telling a company what to do?” but also, “is it ok for a company to dictate what the government can do?” Already, we’ve seen Elon Musk’s decision to cut off Starlink access to Russian troops impact how wars are being fought. Anton agrees that in an ideal world, Congress would be regulating AI and resolving these disputes. However, the technology may be advancing faster than our dysfunctional political moment can regulate.
Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.