World Review: Iran War Ceasefire. Lebanon & Israel Talk. Ukraine’s New Vibe
A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review
Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
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Now, on to this week’s show. We discussed the implications of an indefinite ceasefire in the Iran War, prospects for resolving the conflict in Lebanon, and the new vibe in Ukraine. Joining me this week were Elise Labott of the Substack “Cosmopolitics,” Prashant Rao of Semafor, and Matt Kaminski of the Middle East Broadcasting Network
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be holding, but the deeper damage to the global economy is only beginning to reveal itself. With no ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, liquefied natural gas supplies are unlikely to return to normal until 2028, aluminum and helium are in short supply, and JP Morgan is warning of rising gas prices in the United States — just ahead of the midSegment 1: Iran / Strait of Hormuz The ceasefire between the United States and Iran may be holding, but the deeper damage to the global economy is only beginning to reveal itself. With no ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, liquefied natural gas supplies are unlikely to return to normal until 2028, aluminum and helium are in short supply, and JP Morgan is warning of rising gas prices in the United States — just ahead of the midterms. But the most consequential shift may be structural and permanent. As Prashant Rao reported from the Semaphore World Economy Summit, the consensus among global CEOs, finance ministers, and central bank governors was unambiguous: every major power is now working to render its vulnerability to Hormuz irrelevant. The IEA’s Fatih Birol told him that every new gas supply agreement now comes with a new question attached: does this give you leverage over me? The Iranians, Rao observed, have taught the same lesson the Chinese taught during the trade war: “showing your hand when you have an asymmetrical advantage” has consequences that outlast any ceasefire.
A fragile ceasefire in Lebanon has been extended for three more weeks, and for the first time in decades, Israeli and Lebanese representatives are holding direct talks in Washington. But the underlying conditions remain unchanged, and Lebanon itself has had little say in shaping the process, which is being driven more by Washington than any regional power. The more important question is whether this moment — unprecedented in its strategic opportunity — will be seized or squandered. With Assad gone, Iran weakened, and Hezbollah’s leadership decapitated, Lebanon has capable new leaders in President Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam who are, for the first time, speaking openly about consolidating military authority under the state. Matt argued that Lebanon has “never had a better opportunity to really create a proper sovereign state” — but cautioned that the region has a long habit of missing exactly these kinds of openings. The diplomatic bandwidth to exploit the moment, Elise warned, matters even more right now than the military dimension: the work requires patience, precision, and an understanding of the region’s equities that the Trump administration has yet to demonstrate.
Four years into the war, the assumptions underpinning the Ukraine conflict have quietly but fundamentally shifted. Russia is losing an estimated 30,000 soldiers a month, its economy is showing deep signs of strain, and its spring offensive has yielded virtually no territorial gains. Meanwhile, Ukraine has transformed itself into what Matt called the Silicon Valley of Europe in defense innovation, pioneering drone warfare and cultivating technology partnerships that major European powers now see as essential to their own rearmament. Zelensky’s outreach to the Gulf — offering Ukraine’s four years of experience fighting Iranian drones as a calling card — is emblematic of a broader strategic pivot: Kyiv is diversifying its alliances and no longer assuming American support will anchor its war effort. And as Prashant observed, the United States remains necessary for any diplomatic resolution — but it is far from clear where the bandwidth for that comes from, “given that at the moment all eyes in Washington are on the Middle East.”
Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.