World Review: Iran: Diplomacy or Escalation? The Big Rift in NATO. Europe's Fragmented Politics
A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review
Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
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Now, on to this week’s show. We discussed whether the US is stuck between escalating in Iran or accepting a lesser deal, how Trump’s criticism of NATO is going over in Europe, and what European elections show about the nature of politics in Europe. Joining me this week were Peter Spiegel, Managing Editor at The Washington Post, Stefanie Bolzen, the Washington Correspondent and North America Editor at Die Welt, and Edward Luce, the U.S. National Editor and Columnist for The Financial Times.
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
The way President Trump conducts policy is uniquely vulnerable to the current direction of the war with Iran. Iran now controls who can transit the Strait of Hormuz, extracting payments and holding out for political concessions. Ed argues that the markets are the primary thing that Trump cares about and this gives Iran a “stranglehold on TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out)” as they can force wild swings in oil and stock markets by controlling who can cross the Strait. With disregard for U.S. Allies and for any deliberate policymaking process, Trump has led the United States into this war alone and without a plan. As I’ve pointed out in the past, Trump looks at every negotiation like its a real-estate deal, but the strategic implications of war are very different, and in this negotiation, Iran holds the cards.
The Iran War may be causing a seismic shift in America’s diplomatic standing in the world. The war has solidified much of what European leaders already thought about the second Trump Administration—that they can no longer count on the U.S. for their security. Allies and partners in East and South Asia are facing an economic and energy crisis, caused by the actions of their friend, the United States. India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who coordinated well with Trump during the first administration, saw the United States as a natural ally. But the Iran War has thrown a wrench into the Indian economy and deepened a split that had already been growing over Trump’s embrace of Pakistan and his criticism of Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. Stefanie points out that while it’s unclear if Europe has taken the actions needed to stand alone, there is now a “common understanding” that they must. While Europeans have disagreed with the U.S. in the past, perhaps the global repercussions of this war signal a truly permanent rupture.
Recent European elections reflect the increasingly fractured nature of political life in liberal democracies. In Denmark and Germany, the traditional democratic socialist parties lost ground, as they’ve failed to deliver prosperity for younger people. While far-right parties generally failed to pick up support, with a notable exception in Slovenia, the traditional centrist parties aren’t picking it up either. In a recent by-election in the UK, Reform lost, but the Greens, not Labour, picked up the seat. When people feel alienated from the political process, they tend towards revolutionary options. As centrist parties have failed to deliver for European voters, they’ve grown more attracted to the far left and far right. And in the U.S., Peter points out that while discussions within the Trump Administration on the Iran War revolved around building Trump’s “legacy,” many voters are feeling alienated as its only led to higher costs. As our lives become more isolated and in-person politics is replaced by an online version, alienation and the fragmentation it brings will continue to influence liberal democracies.
Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.