World Review: Blockade or Negotiate? Hungarian Earthquake. The President vs. the Pope
A synopsis of this week's edition of World Review
Each week, I host a video podcast called World Review with Ivo Daalder where journalists from major news outlets around the world join me to discuss the latest global news stories of the week.
World Review can now be heard on Sundays, at 7:00 a.m. Central Time, on Chicago’s NPR station, WBEZ, or on the WBEZ app. We’ll still tape the show on Fridays, and post the video on YouTube and the audio version on Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Now, on to this week’s show. We discussed Trump’s televised speech on Wednesday night, the global ripples of the closed Strait of Hormuz, and Israel’s 30-month war. Joining me this week were Christina Ruffini, cohost of Bloomberg This Weekend, Karin Axelsson, EU correspondent for the Danish newspaper Politiken, and Jamie Dettmer, Associate Editor and Foreign Affairs Columnist for Politico Europe.
While I encourage you to watch or listen to the episode (and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts!), here are a few interesting things I took away from our discussion:
The week ended with some good news: a ceasefire in Lebanon, a reopening of the Strait, and negotiations possibly resuming in Pakistan this weekend. But none of these encouraging steps are certain. Israel has continued to strike some targets in Lebanon, and Prime Minister Netanyahu is under pressure to resume the fighting. Iran says the Strait is open to all commercial traffic, but the US is continuing to block ships from or to Iranian ports. And while mediators have been busy this past week, bridging the gaps between the US and Iran will not be easy. Certainly not in a day or two of talks. Is there a way to move things forward? The answer, surprisingly, may come from Europe. While European leaders have been stuck between the effects of the war and not wanting to get involved, Karin argued they are far more aligned than observers may think. European governments were critical in past negotiations with Iran, and still have diplomatic presence in Tehran. If Washington were willing—a big if, admittedly—European involvement in negotiations might be able to move the talks forward in ways other countries may not be able to do. That’s particularly true when negotiations move from broad statements to details.
“It’s the economy, stupid.” That was the lesson following Victor Orbán’s defeat in the Hungarian Presidential elections this week. His opponent, Péter Magyar, campaigned on economic issues, including Hungary’s rural hospital network and failing transit infrastructure. The cronyism that once entrenched Orbán became a liability, as average Hungarians saw rampant corruption favoring Orbán’s family and friends while they increasingly struggled. The defeat shows that it’s pretty hard to be a populist that isn’t popular. Even illiberal regimes are vulnerable if they fail to deliver for their constituents. Jamie argues that EU leaders must be sure to learn the right lessons. Yes, this was a defeat for the European far-right, but economic and social issues motivated this defeat. Unless political leaders in Brussels address those issues, populist movements will continue to find traction.
We are likely past the high watermark of Trump’s influence among conservatives globally. Trump is seen more and more as a political liability in Europe, rather than as an important ally. Trump and JD Vance openly supported Orbán, but it had no impact at all. Other right-wing leaders are taking notice. Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, faced with a public opinion that is increasingly anti-Trump, has been looking for ways to distance herself from the American President. Trump’s denigration of the Pope last week, provided an opening for her, saying the president comments were “unacceptable.” The bigger question is why Trump decided to take on the Pope. For many it is a sign of increasing political desperation. But he is paying a price, even among his strongest supporters, Christina argued. Evangelical Christians and Catholics are part of Trump’s base. And now he’s losing support among part of that base, notably Latino voters, almost all Catholic, who already turned away from the president over immigration and now see his attacks on the Pope as unbecoming.
Those are my quick takes on this week’s episode here on World Review. To get the full story, please listen to the episode itself.