When it comes to reassuring Ukraine, Europe is on its own
Ukraine and Europe cannot rely on Trump’s America to come to its aid if Russia were to resume a war after a ceasefire has been agreed. So what should they do?
There was one positive outcome of the 72 hours of feverish diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine that started with Trump rolling out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska and ended with 6 hours of talks between Trump and European leaders at the White House last month: an agreement that real, tangible security guarantees are critical to sustain a ceasefire in Ukraine.
Ukraine and many Europeans are committed. Trump says the US will help out, but Europe needs to take the lead. So what can and should they Europeans do? That is the question I seek to answer in a new piece published by Foreign Affairs.
The best and strongest guarantee of Ukraine’s security would be membership in NATO, but Trump has ruled this out. The administration has also stated that Europe, not the United States, should bear the primary burden of any guarantees, declining to promise any specific form of U.S. involvement. This has left European leaders scrambling to produce a formula that could provide what is needed. One essential step was taken in September, when French President Emmanuel Macron announced that 26 Western allies were prepared to support Ukraine “by land, sea, or air” once the fighting stops. But the details of these contributions remain vague, given that so far only Britain, Estonia, France, and Lithuania have publicly pledged to put forces on the ground in Ukraine.
Europe’s quandary is how to turn its determination to reassure Ukraine into a tangible reality. To do so, European leaders will need to ensure that Ukrainian forces are as strong and capable as possible, and draw on the resources of NATO to support those forces, even if outright membership in the alliance is out of the question.
European leaders need to accept the present situation: when it comes to tangible security guarantees for Ukraine, they will be on their own. Any U.S. contribution will be minimal at best. Supporting Ukraine’s military and deploying significant forces in and around Ukraine as part of a NATO operation offers the best way to reassure Kyiv that Europe’s commitments are real. This will not be easy, but doing so is essential to developing a credible path toward ending the war and to ensuring Ukraine’s security. Ultimately, a strong, free, and independent Ukraine is essential for Europe’s own security.
Read the entire article in Foreign Affairs.