Two Wars, One Stalemate: Why Neither Iran Nor Russia Will Fold Anytime Soon
The U.S. is overestimating its leverage in both conflicts — and the costs of that miscalculation are mounting — I told Bloomberg TV.
I was on Bloomberg TV earlier this week, and the conversation kept circling back to the same uncomfortable truth: in both the Iran standoff and the war in Ukraine, Washington is stuck in a game of chicken — and may be the side more likely to swerve.
Here are the three points that I think matter most right now.
Iran is playing a longer game than Washington thinks
The administration seems to believe that the economic blockade will eventually force Tehran to cry uncle. Iran believes the opposite — that rising prices, including what we saw in today’s inflation report, will force Washington to back down first.
This is a classic game of chicken. And my bet is that the Trump administration is systematically underestimating Iran’s leverage and, as it has from the very beginning of this conflict, their willingness to absorb devastating damage — to their military, their economy, their people — rather than capitulate. This is a regime that came to power through revolutionary struggle. And its new leaders have come to power because of this very war. Suffering is not a deterrent to them; in some ways, it is a source of legitimacy.
The minimum objective right now is just to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and get back to the status quo ante of February 28, before the war started. That alone should tell you how far we’ve fallen.
We have the wrong negotiators
When the Obama administration negotiated the Iran nuclear deal, the U.S. delegation wasn’t just led by the Secretary of State. It included the Secretary of Energy — a Nobel Prize-winning nuclear physicist — along with a deep bench of technical experts who understood enrichment levels, centrifuge cascades, and verification mechanisms.
What we have now are real estate professionals who are used to drafting term sheets and leaving the details to lawyers. In arms control, the details are the agreement. You cannot close a nuclear deal the way you close a property transaction.
Ukraine is holding — but that doesn’t mean peace is near
The president has been saying for over a year that he can end the Ukraine war in a day. We are no closer to a solution than the day he returned to office.
What I will say is this: Ukraine has demonstrated remarkable resilience. They survived a brutal winter with Russian missiles and drones systematically targeting their power grid. And their drone warfare capability is now inflicting 35,000 Russian casualties per month. Their precision strikes deep into Russian territory are hitting oil refineries and military infrastructure, bringing the war home to the average Russian.
Is Putin feeling pressure? Yes. Is that pressure translating into serious peace negotiations? Not yet. Every time Trump presses him, Putin says the right things and then does nothing. Until Moscow genuinely believes it cannot achieve its maximalist war aims, we will remain in a stalemate.
The through-line in both conflicts is the same: maximalism on all sides, combined with a fundamental misreading of relative leverage. That’s a recipe not for resolution, but for prolonged, costly standoffs — with the U.S. bearing more of the cost than the administration currently wants to admit.