Trump Knows He Lost the War

The indefinite extension of the ceasefire in the Iran War is the clearest indication yet that Trump knows he lost the war against Iran.

For 36 hours, the White House has been waiting by the phone for a call from Iran saying it was ready to talk. The call never came.

Trump was left with a clear choice: restart the war or extend the ceasefire. Shortly after 4:00 pm today, Trump gave the answer:

This is what surrender looks like.

Trump extended the ceasefire. Not for a day. Not for a week. But indefinitely. Instead of demanding Iran accept the US proposed deal or even just come back to the table, Trump said the ceasefire will remain “until such time as” Iran comes up with “a unified proposal.”

But why would Iran come up with a new proposal, unified or otherwise? Trump blames Iran for being “seriously fractured.” Differences within the regime no doubt exist. But the reason Iran didn’t pick up the phone and say its negotiators were on their way to Islamabad is because they know Trump needs a deal more than they do.

It was Trump who wanted a ceasefire, seeing that further escalation wasn’t bringing Iran around and fearing the economic and political fallout of continuing the war. If Trump now extends the ceasefire indefinitely, Iran is fine with that. Right now, all of the advantages are with Iran, not with Trump. The US president’s only card is restarting a war he doesn’t want. Meanwhile, Iran holds the rest of the cards. Consider:

• Iran controls access to the Strait of Hormuz because of geography. Trump said the blockade of Iranian shipping will remain in place. But for how long? Iran can’t going anywhere. Meanwhile, the pressure on Trump to end the blockade will only increase. Just yesterday, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the Strait to reopen—the same Xi Trump wants to make a historic deal with when he travels to Beijing in a few weeks. And the blockade, it turns out, is leaking—more than two dozen Iranian-linked vessels, including 11 oil and gas tankers, have so far gotten through.

• Iran controls the nuclear materials that Trump wants. These materials include uranium enriched to 60 percent, which can be turned into nuclear bombs (whether further enriched or not). Tehran may consider handing some or all of the materials to a third country, but only for a price. Trump will have to decide whether he’s prepared to pay the price that Tehran demands. If not, the nuclear-bomb-making materials remain in Iran.

• Iran’s regime has changed. It’s even more hardline and even more committed to its own survival than the previous regime. It can ignore its public—or put it down, if it protests too much. Trump may want to ignore US opinion (which never supported him on the war, and is increasingly turning against him), but will his party? For how long, when gas prices continue to rise and inflation spikes?

• Iran’s friends—Russia and China—are still with it. Russia has supplied intelligence and weaponry. China has bought its oil and sent dual-use goods. America’s friends are turning against it, not only in Europe, but in the Middle East, where the Gulf states and even Israel are increasingly worried that Trump will walk away before Iran has been defeated.

Here’s the reality: Trump knows he’s lost this war. That’s what an indefinite ceasefire means. He just doesn’t want to say it out loud.