This is not the Iraq War. It's far Worse.
This much is clear after more than 3 weeks of fighting: the Iran War's strategic consequences will be far worse for the region, for the world, and for America, than the misguided Iraq War ever was.
“This is not Iraq.” Secretary of Defense/War Pete Hegseth said, referring to the Iran War.
He’s right. The Iran War’s consequences are far worse and longer lasting than the Iraq War ever was. That much is clear as we enter the fourth week of the war, I argue in my latest “From Across the Pond Column.”
Like many, I used to believe that former U.S. President George W. Bush’s decision to invade Iraq in 2003 was the biggest strategic mistake America had made, at least since the Vietnam War.
That is, until now.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel in a war against Iran is a far bigger strategic error, and one with far bigger strategic consequences. The reasons for this are many, ranging from the immediate impact on the region and the global economy to the longer-term upshots for Russia and China, as well as the repercussions for U.S. alliances and America’s global standing.
That much is already clear — and we’re only three weeks in.
Let’s start with the similarities: Much like the Iraq War, the war against Iran began based on the presumption that the regime in power would swiftly fall and that a new, more moderate and less antagonistic one would take its place. In both instances, the idea was to remove the greatest destabilizing threat in the Middle East — Saddam Hussein’s regime in the initial case, the theocratic dictatorship in Tehran in the latter — through the swift and decisive use of military force.
But while Bush understood that defeating a regime required ground forces, it seems Trump simply hoped that airpower alone would suffice. As a result, Hussein’s regime fell swiftly — though Bush did vastly underestimate what would be required to rebuild a stable, let alone a democratic, Iraq in its place. But the Iranian government, as U.S. intelligence officials themselves have testified, “appears to be intact” despite Israel killing many of its key political and security leaders through targeted strikes.
Read the entire article at Politico.eu.
I think you’re overstating the consequences-4 weeks into this is hardly 9 years in Iraq.
Rummy had predicted a few weeks, possibly months, not a decade. Prognosticators beware.
-The US and Israel have taken out the leadership/and their understudies-no one quote knows who’s running what
-The US and Israel have taken out their army, navy, Basji, much of the IRCG, pinpointed it all
-Unlike Iraq, the US has a military ally with shared intel. That was not the case previously. Ever, if at all.
-The GCC countries will move closer to the US now, rather than to China or Russia.
-Many Lebanese blame Hezbollah for starting the war (again) rather than exclusively blaming Israel for the destruction it has wrought.
While I absolutely abhor Trump-and Bibi right behind-I’m loath to march in lockstep that this ‘war’ will be another forever war.
6 weeks-which was said at the outset-seems about right..