A Chance for Trump to Reverse Course on Ukraine

The US-Ukraine investment deal on natural resource provides an opportunity for Trump to reverse course by helping Ukraine defend itself and pressuring Russia to end its war.

Yesterday, President Trump got what he has long sought from Ukraine: a signed agreement giving the United States access to Ukrainian critical minerals and other natural resources. The deal, which was about to be signed in February but delayed following the blowup in the Oval Office when Trump and his vice president berated President Zelenskyy for failing to be sufficiently grateful, is now done. But it is not enough. The next step is for Trump to reverse course by fully supporting Ukraine’s war effort and substantially increasing the pressure on Russia to end its illegal war against Ukraine.

A Compromise Deal

The terms of the deal are a significant improvement over draft versions tabled by the United States at the outset of negotiations. Gone is the idea that US access to Ukraine’s resources would compensate for past US military and economic aid. Instead, the value of any future US military aid will now be considered an investment into a jointly owned investment fund. Also gone is the neo-colonial idea that the US would “own” Ukraine’s natural resources. Any revenues generated by the exploration of Ukraine’s natural resources, moreover, would go towards the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy and infrastructure for the first ten years of postwar reconstruction.

Kyiv didn’t get everything it sought. Most importantly, it wanted an ironclad security guarantee that the United States would come to its defense if, after a ceasefire, Russia were to resume its war. Trump refused, having also ruled out the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO. Importantly, Ukraine will also share revenue from its natural resource exploration (including not only critical materials but also oil and gas) with the United States on a 50%-50% basis. And any future US aid will no longer be a grant or forgivable loan, but a financial contribution to the fund.

Real negotiations and deal-making involve compromises if they are to be successful. This deal is no exception. Both sides got things they wanted — and had to forego things they sought. But that’s the art of the deal. The US gets access to Ukrainian resources. Ukraine gets an America that is more deeply invested in Ukraine economically than before. That’s important.

This deal “signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted upon signing the agreement. It represents “a partnership between the American people and the Ukrainian people to show both sides’ commitment to lasting peace and prosperity in Ukraine.” Bessent also underscored that no state or person that had financed or supported the Russian war machine could participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction.

Time to Reverse Course

But if this deal begins and ends with an investment fund that uses Ukraine’s natural resources for its future reconstruction, then it’s not much. In fact, by sharing its natural resources with the United States, the deal risks being seen as little more than the exploitation of a country at war with an aggressor neighbor.

To make this deal successful, Trump needs to reverse course. For the past 100 days, he has sought to negotiate an end to the war on his own terms. It’s proven far more difficult than he thought, for reasons I explained before. Trump thought he could convince President Putin to accept a ceasefire if he pushed Zelenskyy hard enough to make concessions. He told Ukraine it couldn’t join NATO. He said the US would recognize Crimea as Russian despite its illegal annexation. He insisted that Ukraine give up any military claims to the territories Russia occupied in Ukraine. He even promised to lift all US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014.

But Putin’s answer to all these carrots was: “Nyet.” He promised a 30-hour ceasefire over Easter and a 72-hour halt to fighting when Russia celebrates Victory Day on May 8. But he rejected an unconditional 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine accepted weeks ago. Putin isn’t interested in ending the war before he has achieved his objectives—the complete subjugation of Ukraine and a reordering of the European security order that emerged after the Cold War. As Russian officials have made clear, these goals remain unchanged.

Lately, Trump seems to have gotten the message. A week ago, after Russia launched its largest missile and drone attack on Kyiv ever, he posted: “Vladimir, STOP!” And after being called out in the New York Times for having been played by Putin, he changed his tone about the Russian leader. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’”

With the investment agreement, Trump has now gotten the most important thing he wants from Ukraine. But he’s gotten nothing from Russia. And he isn’t going to get anything from Russia by offering even more concessions or, as he has warned, by walking away.

It’s time to try something new: help Ukraine defend itself and increase the pressure on Russia. The military assistance sent to Ukraine as part of the package agreed by Congress last April is starting to run out. Now that Ukraine has agreed to treat new military assistance as an investment in its reconstruction, Trump can rightly claim that he is being compensated for any aid he agrees to send to Ukraine. Kyiv desperately needs air defense systems, especially Patriot interceptors to defend its cities against the horrific missile attacks Russia continues to launch almost every day. It needs spare parts to repair crucial kit sent previously, more ammunition for its artillery, tanks, and rocket systems. Trump should now agree to provide these and other means for Ukraine to defend itself.

Russia isn’t winning this war. It has gained precious little territory in more than 18 months of fighting—and lost close to one million soldiers in three years. Its war economy is overheating and growth has begun to turn negative. The time to increase pressure on Russia is now. Senator Lindsay Graham has prepared a major bill, that would increase sanctions on Russia and place 500% tariffs on goods from any country that supported Russia’s war effort or imported Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other products. Graham has 60 co-sponsors for the bill and expects to have a veto-proof majority in the next few days.

Trump should announce that he wants Congress to pass the Graham bill (a similar measure is making its way through the House) to demonstrate that he recognizes that this war will not end until Russia feels sufficient pain to end it. The time to help Ukraine and pressure Russia is now. The only question is whether President Trump now understands this.