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Seventy-seven years ago today, 12 nations signed the North Atlantic Treaty. NATO today faces the gravest crisis in its history. This week, Secretary General Mark Rutte will visit the Oval Office to try and convince President Trump to remain a member of this vital Alliance and to end his near-constant criticism and threats to leave.

I spoke with Christine Ruffini and Joe Mathieu about the visit, the importance of NATO more generally, and why the Iran War threatens America’s global standing and influence.

But don’t take this absence as an indicator that all is well in the Alliance, I told CNN News Central earlier today. The rift between the Trump Administration and our NATO allies is deep, with both sides taking actions to indicate the ties are fraying.

Mark Rutte, NATO’s secretary general and all-around Trump Whisperer, is headed to Washington next week. My advice to him: Tell Trump the European allies are determined to pick up much more responsibility for the defense of Europe. They are increasing spending, buying more capabilities, and fielding the forces necessary to reduce the burdens on the United States.

Watch the entire interview.

A sobering conversation.

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• NATO’s Role and the Threshold for Involvement I want to be very clear on the Alliance’s position: while the United States is a central actor in this crisis, NATO as an organization will remain on the sidelines. The North Atlantic Treaty is a collective defense pact designed for the protection of member territory against an armed attack. Unless we see a direct attack on a NATO member, this remains a “coalition of the willing” led by Washington, not a NATO operation. Maintaining this distinction is vital for European stability even as the Middle East reaches a boiling point.

• The High Probability of Further Escalation I explained why I thought escalation was much more likely now than before. Neither side feels they can afford a climb-down that looks like a fundamental loss of face, which naturally pushes both toward the next rung of the escalatory ladder.

• The Danger of Miscalculation My primary concern right now is “escalation by accident.” We are in a cycle where military actions meant to signal resolve to a domestic audience can easily be misread by the adversary as a prelude to total war. The margin for error has disappeared, and the diplomatic off-ramps are becoming increasingly difficult to find as the rhetoric on both sides hardens.

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So, when Diane reached out the other day to ask whether I would come on her show, DIANE’s Substack, I immediately agreed. Our discussion ranged widely — including my take-away from the Munich Security Conference, the Ukraine war, Greenland, the Board of Peace, and how are allies view the state of our democracy. You can watch the full discussion here.